More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS | Embed FiveThirtyEight Embed Code Welcome to the latest episode of Hot Takedown, FiveThirtyEight’s sports podcast. On this week’s show (May 16, 2017), FiveThirtyEight’s Kyle Wagner helps us make sense of one of the latest developments in the NBA playoffs: the ankle injury that forced Kawhi Leonard to miss Game 2 of the Western Conference finals. Can the San Antonio Spurs beat the Golden State Warriors without him? Next, Derek Jeter’s No. 2 jersey was retired by the New York Yankees on Sunday. We debate whether Jeter’s career was as great as the Yankees like to think it was. Finally, the prevailing wisdom is that playing at home during the playoffs matters — but is that true across all sports? We discuss. Plus, a significant digit on softball.Here are links to what we discussed:The Warriors’ Zaza Pachulia stepped on Leonard’s foot in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals, injuring Leonard. Was Pachulia’s play dirty, accidental or both? The Ringer’s Rodger Sherman investigates.The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg argues that the Spurs cannot beat the Warriors without Leonard.In 2014, Neil Paine found that Derek Jeter wasn’t clutch — he was just good.Last week, Neil discovered that a home playoff game can be a big advantage — but not in hockey.Earlier this year, FiveThirtyEight found that coaches’ yelling at refs actually works.Significant Digit: 1 — the ranking of the Minnesota Golden Gophers, the top ranked college softball team in the nation, according to a new coaches poll released this week. Despite this, the NCAA tournament’s selection committee said the Gophers did not deserve one of the tourney’s top 16 seeds.
00:00 00:00 spaceplay / pause qunload | stop ffullscreenshift + ←→slower / faster ↑↓volume mmute ←→seek . seek to previous 12… 6 seek to 10%, 20% … 60% XColor SettingsAaAaAaAaTextBackgroundOpacity SettingsTextOpaqueSemi-TransparentBackgroundSemi-TransparentOpaqueTransparentFont SettingsSize||TypeSerif MonospaceSerifSans Serif MonospaceSans SerifCasualCursiveSmallCapsResetSave Settings 00:00 00:00 spaceplay / pause qunload | stop ffullscreenshift + ←→slower / faster ↑↓volume mmute ←→seek . seek to previous 12… 6 seek to 10%, 20% … 60% XColor SettingsAaAaAaAaTextBackgroundOpacity SettingsTextOpaqueSemi-TransparentBackgroundSemi-TransparentOpaqueTransparentFont SettingsSize||TypeSerif MonospaceSerifSans Serif MonospaceSans SerifCasualCursiveSmallCapsResetSave SettingsSAN DIEGO (KUSI) – The County Board of Supervisors adopted a $6.3 billion budget for next year, an increase of 8.5-percent over the current year. There are no new, or bold initiatives in the budget but it significantly builds on a program the County started in 2010 called, “Live Well San Diego.”KUSI’s Steve Bosh has the numbers.Capitol projects will increase by 80%, including 180 miles of road repair$1.9 billion for public safety$536 million for land use and environment$2.3 billion for pay and benefits$2.1 billion for health and human servicesThe budget primarily focuses on spending where it’s most needed, Health and Human Services is a priority. “Today we are here at the County to demonstrate that strength and innovation exists through our extraordinary investment in San Diego residents” said Kristin Gaspar, Chair. San Diego County Supervisor, District 3. Gaspar added that the budget will continue to build on the “Live Well San Diego” program.“In this year’s budget we are investing in prevention, which is the essense of ‘live well.’ We are investing in human potential, we are investing in keeping our communities safe, we are investing in strengthening people and their families, we are investing in helping people transform their lives and break through barriers to success” she said.RELATED STORY: Proposed San Diego County budget includes 8-percent increaseSan Diego County Supervisor, District 4, Ron Roberts called this a good budget, reflecting the economy and targeting addictions. Roberts also said mental illness has become an epidemic saying, “we are going to have about $125 million in individualized drug and alcohol treatment programs, this is a tripling of the amount from previous spending.” Roberts continued, “We are adding $2.5 million for public health and emergency response with the kinds of diseases that might be out there on the streets.”County Supervisor Ron Roberts joined KUSI at Coasterra to share his opinion on the proposed budget and a variety of topics that it would cover. His full interview can be seen below. June 26, 2018 San Diego County Board of Supervisors proposed budget is largest in history Steve Bosh, Allen Denton, Sandra Maas Steve Bosh, Allen Denton, Sandra Maas, Posted: June 26, 2018 Updated: 7:04 PM Categories: California News, Local San Diego News, Politics Tags: Ron Roberts FacebookTwitter
As connected devices and voice-assistant tech proliferate, publishers have never had so many different avenues through which to communicate with consumers as part of their day-to-day routines. With its latest brand extension, Epicurious wants to go where — outside of mobile apps and ink and paper — few have ventured before: the kitchen.Beginning today, with a simple download on the Alexa smartphone companion app, users of Amazon’s personal assistant can access cooking and preparation tips curated by the teams at Condé Nast’s Food Innovation Group and its Co/Lab digital partnerships group on nearly 50 commonly used food items.Eric Gillin, digital GM of the Food Innovation Group, says the launch is all a part of Epicurious’ mission to be the home cook’s ultimate resource. “We knew we had to do something different,” Gillin tells Folio:. “A lot of folks were doing recipe search and reciting recipe instructions. Knowing that most Alexa users were asking for things like sports scores and the weather, we really tried to figure out: What was our weather? What was that simple thing that we could do to help cooks do in the kitchen? We know that people are always interested in how long it takes to cook things. So we started there.”Users can activate the tips by saying, for example, “Alexa, ask Epicurious how long it takes to cook a ribeye.” Then, says Jeff Israel, lead engineer of the Co/Lab Partnerships Team, Alexa runs through a few follow up questions to gather more information. How thick is the steak? How well done would you like it? Alexa then dictates the ideal cooking time and temperature to meet the conditions, and provides helpful tips like, “Season with lots of salt and pepper,” or “Let it rest for five minutes and slice across the grain for maximum tenderness.”“Anyone that uses the skill can also start it first by saying, ‘Open Epicurious‘ and then asking about a specific food, ‘ribeye,’ or a group, like ‘steak,’” adds Israel. “The skill will respond with prompts and guide the user to their desired recipe—’What kind of steak would you like to cook?’ I expect this will be a frequently used path as users explore the skill. We will be gathering data on how different paths are used so that we can tweak and improve the skill based on interactions.”No new digital product is suited for market without ongoing data analysis, and Israel says research on not only which foods home cooks most often prepare and what they need from a digital assistant, but how exactly they’d interact with such a tool was a major part of the project from the beginning. As far out as a year ago, Gillin and the Epicurious team were in talks with Amazon about launching a recipe skill on the Alexa platform. An alpha version impressed Condé Nast’s chief development officer, Fred Santarpia, in March, and beta testing with users occurred throughout the summer.“Throughout the review cycles, the team we worked with at Amazon provided immense detail into the testing scenarios they subjected the skill to,” continues Israel. “We went into a fast-paced develop-test-review cycle. It culminated with final tweaks made while I was sitting in LAX last week on a layover.”Even the nearly 50 food items included in the tool were subject to research; Gillin’s team created a demand map of ingredients people purchase, examined Google trends, and considered which ingredients are most commonly available to consumers.“It’s no surprise to anyone who works in food, but people really love chicken!” Gillin adds.In terms of getting home cooks to actually begin using the new skill, Gillin says Epicurious will be promoting it in its newsletters and social channels, as well as around existing editorial content that covers Alexa-enabled devices to use in the kitchen. But a major benefit, he says, is expanding the brand to appeal to new readers and audiences, and that expanding to new devices — Epicurious was, after all, among the first cooking sites to launch an iPhone app — has always been in the brand’s DNA.“The interesting thing is that you really can’t add a ton of branding to the tool — it’s not like we’re going to have it say, ‘Epicurious says to cook that steak for ten minutes.’ That would be like those people who refer to themselves in the third-person. But, users will be saying our name every time they need help, and that’s pretty cool.”The new skill, as of now, is a branding initiative that doesn’t launch with any current sponsorships, and Gillin says that while the proper way to monetize products like voice-assistant skills still needs to be determined, he isn’t ruling anything out.“Even though millions of people have these devices, I think the monetization angle has to be figured out,” he says. “Jamming ads into the experience would be disruptive and less helpful to the user. And right now, a good user experience is critical. That said, we have some really fun ideas of how to extend the cook timer to our advertisers.”
See it Share your voice Crutchfield Prime Day 2019: The leftovers Walmart’s final day of anti-Prime Day deals After Amazon Prime Day 2019: You can still snag deals on the Echo and Echo Dot 4 great cheap deals you can get anytime Amazon Prime Day 2019: Fire TV deals end, but Roku discounts still going strong Amazon Prime Day 2019: The best deals on Chromebooks, gaming laptops and MacBooks Post-Prime Day deals from Vizio: Save up to $1,200 on TVs, $200 on an Atmos sound bar Best Buy Post a comment $29 The Cheapskate 0 Now playing: Watch this: CNET’s Cheapskate scours the web for great deals on PCs, phones, gadgets and much more. Note that CNET may get a share of revenue from the sale of the products featured on this page. Questions about the Cheapskate blog? Find the answers on our FAQ page. Find more great buys on the CNET Deals page and follow the Cheapskate on Facebook and Twitter! Best laptops for college students: We’ve got an affordable laptop for every student. Best live TV streaming services: Ditch your cable company but keep the live channels and DVR. See It See It $49 Smart Home DVRs Smart Speakers & Displays Amazon Echo Dot Adorama $29 CNET may get a commission from retail offers. The Fire TV Recast is a whopping $100 off the regular price. Sarah Tew/CNET Pardon me while I throw my crystal ball out the window. Because I thought I had this whole Prime Day thing figured out: Sales on Amazon gear must be over until Prime Day kicks off on July 15, right?Nope. As of this morning, the Fire TV Recast over-the-air DVR is on sale for $129.99, a full $100 off the regular price and by far the lowest it’s ever been.See it at AmazonMeanwhile, the third-gen Amazon Echo Dot continues to sell for $24.99, which is 50% off the list price and the lowest it’s been since Black Friday.See it at AmazonI don’t get it. Where does this leave these these products for Prime Day? Could the Recast be priced even lower? Seems unlikely. And will Amazon merely drop the Dot to $24.99 again, in which case, yawn?Amazon works in mysterious ways, no question. In any case, the larger second-gen Echo is on sale as well: $69.99. That’s not the lowest price to date. It was $64.99 just a couple weeks ago.See it at AmazonSo, yeah — I have no idea. I’ll just say that these are undeniably good deals, especially on the Recast. Read CNET’s Amazon Fire TV Recast review to learn more about this cord cutter-friendly DVR.Here are more smart shopping tips for Amazon Prime Day 2019. Tags News • Amazon Echo Dot deal: 3 for $70 See It Review • Amazon Echo Dot 3 review: Alexa’s best Dot yet plays defense Amazon Fire TV Recast is one of the best DVRs for the… 1:47 Mentioned Above Amazon Echo Dot (third-generation, Charcoal) See also $49 Preview • Amazon’s third Echo Dot takes a few cues from the Google Home Mini Amazon
Greater Harvest Baptist Church1617 W. Saratoga St.Baltimore, Md., 21223Messiah and the Motown SoundFeaturing W. Patrick Alston on organDec. 3, 5 p.m.Rev. Errol D. Gilliard, Sr., Pastor=============================================Holy Temple Church-East336 E. 25th StreetBaltimore, Md. 2121812th AnniversaryDec. 6– Dec. 10, 7:30 p.m. , Dec. 10, 11 a.m.Overseer Margaret Shelley and Apostle Ronald Shelley, Pastors=============================================Morning Star Baptist ChurchThe Renaissance Center6665 Security BoulevardBaltimore, Md. 21207Caring and Sharing: Traveling Through Grief and LossDec. 9, 1 p.m. – 3:30 p.m.Bishop Dwayne C. Debnam, Pastor=============================================Family Bible Ministries Worldwide, Inc.5300 Edmondson Ave.Baltimore, Md. 21229Installation celebration for Bishop Cassandra A. Montgomery as General Overseer and Senior Pastor of Family Bible Ministries Worldwide.Dec. 10 4 p.m.Bishop Cassandra A. Montgomery=============================================Greater Paradise Christian Center2900 E. Oliver StreetBaltimore, 21213Family and Friends DayDec. 10 8 a.m. and 10 a.m.Rev. Shawn Bell, Pastor=============================================Mount Pleasant Church and Ministries6000 Radecke Ave.Baltimore, Md. 21206Tis the Season, A Holy Day CelebrationFriday Dec. 15 7 p.m. -9 p.m.Bishop Clifford Johnson, Pastor=============================================New Friendship Baptist Church1515 East Eager StreetBaltimore, Md.O Christmas Tree- A Gala for ChildrenDec. 16, 1 p.m. – 4 p.m.Rev. Roderick Parks, Pastor=============================================Mount Pleasant African Methodist Episcopal Church235 Tollgate RoadOwings Mills, Md. 21117Christmas ConcertDec. 16, 5 p.m.Dr. Diane H. Johnson, Pastor 2017 is almost over and I encourage you to look over the goals you set for 2017 and see what you have left to accomplish. Then make it happen. Also, make sure you take some time during the remainder of 2017, to plan for 2018. Be intentional about your success. Here is your church news for the week.
© 2014 Phys.org Citation: Study shows nonlinear pattern of migration due to climatic variations (2014, June 24) retrieved 18 August 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2014-06-nonlinear-pattern-migration-due-climatic.html This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only. Indonesia is the fourth most populous country in the world with its people scattered over many islands. It’s also a place with frequent earthquakes and volcanic eruptions—approximately 40 percent of the people in that country make their living from agriculture, generally near the coasts. Taken together, these factors will likely mean major disruptions for the country as global warming causes temperatures to rise, rainfall to change and sea levels to rise. In their study, the researchers sought to learn how temperature and rainfall changes impacted permanent migration in the country, from one region or island to another.The researchers used data from the Rand Corporation’s, The Indonesia Family Life Survey, which has been running since 1993/94. Among other things, the survey tracks the movement of 7,185 people living in that country. The researchers compared the migratory data from the survey with weather data from the same period to see if any patterns might emerge. They found that if the average temperature for any given place was below, 25 °C, small increases in temperature did not give rise to permanent migrations. In places where the average temperature was above 25 °C, however, temperature increases did cause permanent migration to occur. And the more temperature increased, the more people moved away. As an example, they noted that a one degree rise, from 26 to 27 degrees raised the probability of migration by 0.8 percent, but the probability jumped to 1.4 percent if the temperature rose from 27 to 28 degrees. They noted that changes in rainfall had a similar impact, but was not as pronounced.The team conducted similar studies on natural disasters in the area to see if they had a similar impact and found migration from such events tended to be short term as people generally moved back when able to do so.The researchers suggest their results indicate that Indonesia is likely to see large permanent migration as global warming causes rising temperatures, with people moving away from some of the most heavily populated provinces, such as Jakarta. They note also that such migration trends are likely to occur in other countries as well. Journal information: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (Phys.org) —A team of researchers in the U.S. has found that local temperature increases only caused permanent migration in Indonesia when such increases occurred above 25 °C, providing hints of possible migration patterns as global warming continues in the future. In their paper published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the team describes how they used data from another study to track migration over a multi-year period as a means of predicting migration patterns due to global warming. Nonlinear effects of temperature and precipitation on annual migration probability. Credit: Pratikshya Bohra-Mishra, PNAS, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1317166111 Explore further Research duo quantify global human migration numbers More information: Nonlinear permanent migration response to climatic variations but minimal response to disasters, Pratikshya Bohra-Mishra, PNAS, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1317166111AbstractWe present a microlevel study to simultaneously investigate the effects of variations in temperature and precipitation along with sudden natural disasters to infer their relative influence on migration that is likely permanent. The study is made possible by the availability of household panel data from Indonesia with an exceptional tracking rate combined with frequent occurrence of natural disasters and significant climatic variations, thus providing a quasi-experiment to examine the influence of environment on migration. Using data on 7,185 households followed over 15 y, we analyze whole-household, province-to-province migration, which allows us to understand the effects of environmental factors on permanent moves that may differ from temporary migration. The results suggest that permanent migration is influenced by climatic variations, whereas episodic disasters tend to have much smaller or no impact on such migration. In particular, temperature has a nonlinear effect on migration such that above 25 °C, a rise in temperature is related to an increase in outmigration, potentially through its impact on economic conditions. We use these results to estimate the impact of projected temperature increases on future permanent migration. Though precipitation also has a similar nonlinear effect on migration, the effect is smaller than that of temperature, underscoring the importance of using an expanded set of climatic factors as predictors of migration. These findings on the minimal influence of natural disasters and precipitation on permanent moves supplement previous findings on the significant role of these variables in promoting temporary migration.Press release